Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,101$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,083.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,083.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.25 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(98.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $499$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,721$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,116.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,769$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(146 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,059.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,059.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,878$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,904$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,629.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,629.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $214$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217.0}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(217.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,658$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,327$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(387 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,702.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,702.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $240$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277.5}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(277.5\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,587$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,868$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,052.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,052.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $493$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(57.8 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{480.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(480.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,091$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(346 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,267$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(51,840.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,924$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(507 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,023.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,023.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,965$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $191,832$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(203,464.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,809$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,904.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,904.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162,113$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $211,938$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{208,482.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(208,482.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,079$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,715.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,715.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $99,980$ on 2020-05-04
